Paper in PDFOlga GAGAUZ, PhD, National Institute for Economic Research, Republic of Moldova
The present study aims to explore the dynamics of the cohort fertility in Sweden, Spain, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. The postponement and recuperation of fertility are analysed in order to find the differences within this process and how it is reflected in complete cohort fertility rate. The study is based on the Human Fertility Database that provides high quality, comparable and detailed data for comparative analysis of the fertility postponement and recuperation process of childbearing. The benchmark model proposed by Sobotka, Zeman,Lesthaeghe and Frejka has been used as the main tool. The results show that the diversity of complete cohort fertility rates of the 1970s cohort of women is determined by the different level of recuperation of the postponed births. Sweden and the Czech Republic, which experience the stronger recuperation of the postponed births, have a complete cohort fertility higher than in countries with weaker Recuperation Index (Spain and Ukraine). The lower fertility levels of the early 1970s cohorts compared to 1960 cohort was driven by the diverse recuperation attainment according to birth orders. The low fertility in Ukraine was influenced by the reduced recuperation especially of the second birth, while in Spain the low fertility is also driven by the increase in childlessness. Due to the policies that encourage gender equality and availability of high-quality childcare provision, Sweden has a high recuperation of second and third birth. The limited recuperation of the postponed births in Spain is a result of the persistence of double burden for women and of the rigid labour market. A successful transition to the market economy and accessibility of childcare provision allowed the Czech Republic to have a recovery of second birth higher than Ukraine.